Minority Report

Manistique, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Schoolcraft County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 40°   Low 33°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 45 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 18%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°45%
US model (GFS)39°33°14%
European model (ECMWF)40°35°0%
German model (ICON)41°34°20%
Canadian model (GEM)39°34°11%
The average40°33°18%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 33°   Rain 34%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 53 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 65% against a group average of 34%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°34°34%
US model (GFS)38°32°32%
European model (ECMWF)41°32°12%
German model (ICON)40°33°65%
Canadian model (GEM)38°33°29%
The average39°33°34%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 35°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°30°13%
US model (GFS)40°35°4%
European model (ECMWF)40°36°0%
German model (ICON)43°36°5%
Canadian model (GEM)40°36°0%
The average41°35°4%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 33°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°31°0%
US model (GFS)45°37°4%
European model (ECMWF)45°34°0%
German model (ICON)45°35°1%
Canadian model (GEM)42°29°0%
The average44°33°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.