Minority Report

Mansfield, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Richland County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 39°   Rain 96%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 17 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 83% against a group average of 96%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°83%
US model (GFS)49°40°97%
European model (ECMWF)47°40°100%
German model (ICON)48°40°100%
Canadian model (GEM)48°41°100%
The average48°39°96%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 33°   Rain 65%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 44 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 42% against a group average of 65%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°30°63%
US model (GFS)41°34°42%
European model (ECMWF)40°34°80%
German model (ICON)40°34°53%
Canadian model (GEM)41°34°86%
The average40°33°65%

Saturday, November 14

High 40°   Low 29°   Rain 19%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 44 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 49% against a group average of 19%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°32°8%
US model (GFS)41°31°5%
European model (ECMWF)42°28°22%
German model (ICON)42°28°13%
Canadian model (GEM)36°26°49%
The average40°29°19%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 34°   Rain 1%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°32°1%
US model (GFS)43°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)41°36°2%
German model (ICON)46°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)39°28°2%
The average43°34°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.