Minority Report

Manteo, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Dare County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 54°   Rain 12%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 27 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 30% against a group average of 12%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—51°20%
US model (GFS)72°54°30%
European model (ECMWF)72°54°4%
German model (ICON)69°58°3%
Canadian model (GEM)69°55°3%
The average70°54°12%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 49°   Rain 10%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 26% against a group average of 10%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°46°13%
US model (GFS)57°49°26%
European model (ECMWF)58°47°1%
German model (ICON)58°50°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°51°10%
The average58°49°10%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 44°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°46°1%
US model (GFS)53°42°1%
European model (ECMWF)52°44°0%
German model (ICON)52°44°3%
Canadian model (GEM)51°46°0%
The average53°44°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 44°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°49°0%
US model (GFS)54°42°1%
European model (ECMWF)54°42°0%
German model (ICON)55°47°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°42°0%
The average55°44°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.