Minority Report

Marfa, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Presidio County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 67°   Low 39°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—42°0%
US model (GFS)68°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)66°43°0%
German model (ICON)67°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)68°36°0%
The average67°39°0%

Friday, November 13

High 69°   Low 42°   Rain 64%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 37 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 85% against a group average of 64%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service68°46°85%
US model (GFS)71°41°76%
European model (ECMWF)68°46°62%
German model (ICON)67°40°48%
Canadian model (GEM)70°40°48%
The average69°42°64%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 46°   Rain 51%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 90 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 1% against a group average of 51%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°45°1%
US model (GFS)65°47°61%
European model (ECMWF)65°47°91%
German model (ICON)65°49°68%
Canadian model (GEM)66°41°33%
The average65°46°51%

Sunday, November 15

High 63°   Low 44°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°41°0%
US model (GFS)64°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)63°46°0%
German model (ICON)63°43°5%
Canadian model (GEM)64°42°0%
The average63°44°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.