Minority Report

Marion, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Grant County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 39°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 44 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 99% against a group average of 74%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°57%
US model (GFS)48°40°55%
European model (ECMWF)49°41°87%
Canadian model (GEM)46°40°99%
The average48°39°74%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 31°   Rain 38%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 64 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 77% against a group average of 38%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°27°13%
US model (GFS)41°31°15%
European model (ECMWF)45°35°77%
Canadian model (GEM)42°32°49%
The average43°31°38%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 29°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 7 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°33°11%
US model (GFS)41°31°6%
European model (ECMWF)43°30°4%
Canadian model (GEM)44°24°5%
The average43°29°6%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 32°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 12 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°30°12%
US model (GFS)45°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°38°2%
Canadian model (GEM)45°26°2%
The average46°32°4%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.