Minority Report

Marion, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Marion County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 56°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—28°0%
US model (GFS)56°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°37°0%
German model (ICON)55°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°33°0%
The average56°34°0%

Friday, November 13

High 48°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°27°0%
US model (GFS)47°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°31°0%
German model (ICON)48°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°23°0%
The average48°27°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 29°   Rain 5%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°33°11%
US model (GFS)50°28°2%
European model (ECMWF)50°32°0%
German model (ICON)52°29°3%
Canadian model (GEM)51°24°7%
The average51°29°5%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 36°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 51 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 58% against a group average of 25%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°31°21%
US model (GFS)43°40°19%
European model (ECMWF)51°34°7%
German model (ICON)51°39°20%
Canadian model (GEM)48°38°58%
The average49°36°25%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.