Minority Report

Marion, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Crittenden County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 36°   Rain 20%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 54 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 55% against a group average of 20%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°1%
US model (GFS)56°38°4%
European model (ECMWF)58°39°55%
German model (ICON)58°36°28%
Canadian model (GEM)58°36°10%
The average57°36°20%

Friday, November 13

High 46°   Low 32°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°29°7%
US model (GFS)43°34°1%
European model (ECMWF)46°37°0%
German model (ICON)47°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°32°0%
The average46°32°2%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°28°0%
US model (GFS)50°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°32°0%
German model (ICON)50°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°27°0%
The average49°29°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°30°0%
US model (GFS)54°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°33°0%
German model (ICON)54°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°23°0%
The average52°29°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.