Minority Report

Marion, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Marion County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 49°   Low 40°   Rain 96%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 11 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°94%
US model (GFS)49°41°89%
European model (ECMWF)50°42°100%
German model (ICON)49°41°98%
Canadian model (GEM)48°41°100%
The average49°40°96%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 69%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 49 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 95% against a group average of 69%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°29°57%
US model (GFS)41°33°46%
European model (ECMWF)42°34°95%
German model (ICON)41°33°50%
Canadian model (GEM)41°33°95%
The average41°32°69%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 29°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 28 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 9%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°34°11%
US model (GFS)42°31°3%
European model (ECMWF)43°28°1%
German model (ICON)42°29°3%
Canadian model (GEM)38°25°29%
The average41°29°9%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 34°   Rain 1%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°31°1%
US model (GFS)45°38°1%
European model (ECMWF)43°35°2%
German model (ICON)46°38°1%
Canadian model (GEM)39°28°0%
The average44°34°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.