Minority Report

Marshall, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Calhoun County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 44°   Low 36°   Rain 75%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 70 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 30% against a group average of 75%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°30%
US model (GFS)44°36°82%
European model (ECMWF)43°38°100%
German model (ICON)45°37°68%
Canadian model (GEM)43°36°96%
The average44°36°75%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 29°   Rain 21%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 21%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°26°18%
US model (GFS)38°32°16%
European model (ECMWF)40°30°35%
German model (ICON)39°31°23%
Canadian model (GEM)38°29°15%
The average39°29°21%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 29°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°30°2%
US model (GFS)41°32°3%
European model (ECMWF)44°28°2%
German model (ICON)46°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°28°0%
The average44°29°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°28°0%
US model (GFS)46°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°34°0%
German model (ICON)46°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°25°0%
The average45°31°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.