Minority Report

Marshall, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Madison County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 54°   Low 41°   Rain 78%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 64 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 36% against a group average of 78%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°59%
US model (GFS)53°44°36%
European model (ECMWF)54°43°100%
German model (ICON)56°44°93%
Canadian model (GEM)55°43°100%
The average54°41°78%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 36°   Rain 68%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 64 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 68%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°30°52%
US model (GFS)44°37°36%
European model (ECMWF)43°37°100%
German model (ICON)45°37°55%
Canadian model (GEM)43°38°96%
The average44°36°68%

Saturday, November 14

High 40°   Low 29°   Rain 53%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 81 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 95% against a group average of 53%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°25°18%
US model (GFS)40°27°14%
European model (ECMWF)40°33°95%
German model (ICON)41°32°48%
Canadian model (GEM)39°30°89%
The average40°29°53%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°27°0%
US model (GFS)46°26°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°30°0%
German model (ICON)51°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°19°0%
The average48°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.