Minority Report

McConnellsburg, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Fulton County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 41°   Rain 55%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 52 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 55%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°24%
US model (GFS)53°42°40%
European model (ECMWF)60°43°76%
German model (ICON)56°43°63%
Canadian model (GEM)52°42°71%
The average55°41°55%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 35°   Rain 44%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 63 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 8% against a group average of 44%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°31°29%
US model (GFS)42°33°8%
European model (ECMWF)47°39°71%
German model (ICON)44°35°60%
Canadian model (GEM)43°37°50%
The average44°35°44%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 6%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°34°9%
US model (GFS)44°33°2%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°8%
German model (ICON)45°34°3%
Canadian model (GEM)44°36°10%
The average45°34°6%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 37°   Rain 3%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°32°1%
US model (GFS)46°35°1%
European model (ECMWF)48°39°4%
German model (ICON)47°38°3%
Canadian model (GEM)45°39°7%
The average47°37°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.