Minority Report

McKinney, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Collin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 77°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—47°1%
US model (GFS)79°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°51°0%
German model (ICON)76°50°0%
Canadian model (GEM)76°48°0%
The average77°49°0%

Friday, November 13

High 66°   Low 47°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service67°45°1%
US model (GFS)67°48°0%
European model (ECMWF)64°49°0%
German model (ICON)65°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)67°47°0%
The average66°47°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 62°   Low 45°   Rain 49%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 60 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 13% against a group average of 49%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°45°63%
US model (GFS)63°43°31%
European model (ECMWF)60°46°73%
German model (ICON)59°46°63%
Canadian model (GEM)62°45°13%
The average62°45°49%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 43°   Rain 94%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 82% against a group average of 94%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°43°93%
US model (GFS)55°42°82%
European model (ECMWF)50°45°100%
German model (ICON)48°43°100%
Canadian model (GEM)50°42°96%
The average51°43°94%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.