Minority Report

Meadville, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Crawford County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 46°   Low 37°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 58 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 42% against a group average of 81%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°42%
US model (GFS)48°36°82%
European model (ECMWF)45°40°100%
German model (ICON)46°38°88%
Canadian model (GEM)46°37°92%
The average46°37°81%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 34°   Rain 43%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 43 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 66% against a group average of 43%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°32°66%
US model (GFS)38°34°23%
European model (ECMWF)42°34°57%
German model (ICON)40°33°28%
Canadian model (GEM)39°35°43%
The average39°34°43%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 34°   Rain 78%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 92% against a group average of 78%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°33°70%
US model (GFS)42°34°72%
European model (ECMWF)42°34°92%
German model (ICON)42°33°75%
Canadian model (GEM)41°35°82%
The average42°34°78%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 37°   Rain 58%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 34% against a group average of 58%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°33°55%
US model (GFS)42°38°72%
European model (ECMWF)43°38°79%
German model (ICON)43°38°34%
Canadian model (GEM)42°37°52%
The average43°37°58%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.