Minority Report

Melbourne, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Izard County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 62°   Low 39°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°0%
US model (GFS)63°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)62°39°0%
German model (ICON)61°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°43°0%
The average62°39°0%

Friday, November 13

High 50°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°27°0%
US model (GFS)48°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°34°0%
German model (ICON)51°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°35°0%
The average50°33°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°30°1%
US model (GFS)50°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°30°0%
German model (ICON)51°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°28°0%
The average50°28°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 32°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°32°8%
US model (GFS)54°34°7%
European model (ECMWF)53°33°5%
German model (ICON)56°32°9%
Canadian model (GEM)52°30°10%
The average53°32°8%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.