Merced, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Merced County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
← All cities and the scoreboard
High 80° Low 47° Rain 6%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 21 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 54° | 21% |
| US model (GFS) | 82° | 44° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 79° | 49° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 79° | 46° | 5% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 81° | 44° | 3% |
| The average | 80° | 47° | 6% |
High 68° Low 51° Rain 97%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 68° | 47° | 93% |
| US model (GFS) | 69° | 52° | 92% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 66° | 51° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 68° | 51° | 100% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 67° | 51° | 100% |
| The average | 68° | 51° | 97% |
High 64° Low 46° Rain 6%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 66° | 45° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 64° | 49° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 65° | 46° | 14% |
| German model (ICON) | 65° | 45° | 5% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 63° | 42° | 10% |
| The average | 64° | 46° | 6% |
High 67° Low 46° Rain 56%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 62 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 68° | 50° | 64% |
| US model (GFS) | 67° | 50° | 61% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 66° | 45° | 61% |
| German model (ICON) | 68° | 46° | 77% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 66° | 40° | 15% |
| The average | 67° | 46° | 56% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.