Minority Report

Mercer, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Mercer County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 47°   Low 36°   Rain 78%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 77 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 23% against a group average of 78%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°23%
US model (GFS)48°36°83%
European model (ECMWF)47°38°100%
German model (ICON)46°37°95%
Canadian model (GEM)47°39°89%
The average47°36°78%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 23%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 33% against a group average of 23%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°26°32%
US model (GFS)38°31°19%
European model (ECMWF)40°35°14%
German model (ICON)40°33°15%
Canadian model (GEM)40°34°33%
The average41°32°23%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 32°   Rain 85%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 85%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°86%
US model (GFS)40°32°80%
European model (ECMWF)41°33°96%
German model (ICON)41°33°74%
Canadian model (GEM)42°34°89%
The average42°32°85%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 36°   Rain 62%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 76% against a group average of 62%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°30°49%
US model (GFS)43°38°67%
European model (ECMWF)42°38°61%
German model (ICON)44°38°56%
Canadian model (GEM)42°37°76%
The average43°36°62%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.