Minority Report

Mertzon, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Irion County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 73°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—49°0%
US model (GFS)74°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)71°50°0%
German model (ICON)72°52°0%
Canadian model (GEM)74°48°0%
The average73°50°0%

Friday, November 13

High 71°   Low 49°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 5%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service71°50°24%
US model (GFS)72°50°1%
European model (ECMWF)70°48°0%
German model (ICON)70°49°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°47°0%
The average71°49°5%

Saturday, November 14

High 66°   Low 53°   Rain 72%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 41 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 97% against a group average of 72%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°54°61%
US model (GFS)64°50°56%
European model (ECMWF)67°53°97%
German model (ICON)65°55°84%
Canadian model (GEM)72°53°62%
The average66°53°72%

Sunday, November 15

High 68°   Low 49°   Rain 39%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 68 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 75% against a group average of 39%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°44°7%
US model (GFS)71°51°22%
European model (ECMWF)65°51°75%
German model (ICON)70°51°38%
Canadian model (GEM)71°46°52%
The average68°49°39%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.