Minority Report

Metropolis, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Massac County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 59°   Low 37°   Rain 12%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 53 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 53% against a group average of 12%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°0%
US model (GFS)59°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)58°40°53%
German model (ICON)58°37°5%
Canadian model (GEM)59°39°0%
The average59°37°12%

Friday, November 13

High 47°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°27°0%
US model (GFS)46°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°36°0%
German model (ICON)49°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°34°0%
The average47°32°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°26°0%
US model (GFS)51°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°32°0%
German model (ICON)51°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°30°0%
The average50°29°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°29°1%
US model (GFS)55°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°32°0%
German model (ICON)56°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°26°0%
The average54°30°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.