Minority Report

Mexico, MO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Audrain County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 47°   Low 33°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 19 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 19% against a group average of 5%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°0%
US model (GFS)46°33°2%
European model (ECMWF)48°39°2%
German model (ICON)47°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°30°19%
The average47°33°5%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°23°0%
US model (GFS)42°26°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°32°0%
German model (ICON)44°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°26°0%
The average43°27°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 24°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°25°0%
US model (GFS)47°23°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°28°0%
German model (ICON)48°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°18°0%
The average46°24°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°27°1%
US model (GFS)53°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°30°0%
German model (ICON)53°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°18°0%
The average51°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.