Minority Report

Minden, NV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Douglas County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 64°   Low 27°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 8 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°8%
US model (GFS)65°21°0%
European model (ECMWF)62°32°0%
German model (ICON)66°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)63°28°0%
The average64°27°2%

Friday, November 13

High 56°   Low 29°   Rain 96%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 85% against a group average of 96%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°21°85%
US model (GFS)56°35°94%
European model (ECMWF)53°29°100%
German model (ICON)56°28°100%
Canadian model (GEM)58°30°100%
The average56°29°96%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 27°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 59 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 62% against a group average of 18%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°21°3%
US model (GFS)48°32°5%
European model (ECMWF)48°29°11%
German model (ICON)50°26°8%
Canadian model (GEM)54°26°62%
The average50°27°18%

Sunday, November 15

High 57°   Low 29°   Rain 43%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 69 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 83% against a group average of 43%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°25°83%
US model (GFS)55°36°50%
European model (ECMWF)57°30°14%
German model (ICON)58°26°30%
Canadian model (GEM)62°29°36%
The average57°29°43%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.