Minority Report

Mio, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Oscoda County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 42°   Low 33°   Rain 79%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 73 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 27% against a group average of 79%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°27%
US model (GFS)44°34°74%
European model (ECMWF)41°34°100%
German model (ICON)42°33°100%
Canadian model (GEM)42°32°95%
The average42°33°79%

Friday, November 13

High 37°   Low 31°   Rain 12%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 28 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 12%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°30°29%
US model (GFS)36°32°13%
European model (ECMWF)38°31°1%
German model (ICON)37°31°5%
Canadian model (GEM)36°31°14%
The average37°31°12%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 4%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°28°9%
US model (GFS)41°33°7%
European model (ECMWF)40°34°2%
German model (ICON)42°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°34°0%
The average41°32°4%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°25°0%
US model (GFS)41°33°2%
European model (ECMWF)42°29°0%
German model (ICON)43°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°27°0%
The average43°29°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.