Minority Report

Missoula, MT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Missoula County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 14°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°0%
US model (GFS)49°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)63°39°0%
German model (ICON)62°44°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°38°0%
The average57°37°0%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 39°   Rain 4%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 12°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 21% against a group average of 4%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°35°21%
US model (GFS)62°42°0%
European model (ECMWF)60°37°0%
German model (ICON)59°42°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°40°0%
The average58°39°4%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 33°   Rain 37%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 39 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 63% against a group average of 37%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°30°25%
US model (GFS)54°36°24%
European model (ECMWF)50°36°63%
German model (ICON)50°36°33%
Canadian model (GEM)46°27°38%
The average49°33°37%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 32°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 6%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°32°22%
US model (GFS)51°33°1%
European model (ECMWF)55°36°2%
German model (ICON)53°34°3%
Canadian model (GEM)49°23°0%
The average52°32°6%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.