Minority Report

Monahans, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Ward County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 48°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—49°0%
US model (GFS)71°48°0%
European model (ECMWF)70°47°0%
German model (ICON)70°52°0%
Canadian model (GEM)71°44°0%
The average70°48°0%

Friday, November 13

High 72°   Low 48°   Rain 59%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 54 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 90% against a group average of 59%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service72°53°90%
US model (GFS)71°47°36%
European model (ECMWF)72°47°65%
German model (ICON)70°50°40%
Canadian model (GEM)73°42°64%
The average72°48°59%

Saturday, November 14

High 70°   Low 53°   Rain 60%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 92 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 7% against a group average of 60%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service68°52°7%
US model (GFS)72°55°50%
European model (ECMWF)71°54°99%
German model (ICON)72°55°73%
Canadian model (GEM)69°49°72%
The average70°53°60%

Sunday, November 15

High 67°   Low 48°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°47°0%
US model (GFS)70°54°3%
European model (ECMWF)66°48°6%
German model (ICON)69°50°5%
Canadian model (GEM)65°42°0%
The average67°48°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.