Minority Report

Montesano, WA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Grays Harbor County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 59°   Low 51°   Rain 38%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 70 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 87% against a group average of 38%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—51°87%
US model (GFS)61°52°17%
German model (ICON)60°50°18%
Canadian model (GEM)58°49°32%
The average59°51°38%

Friday, November 13

High 57°   Low 50°   Rain 94%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 17 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 83% against a group average of 94%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°48°100%
US model (GFS)56°50°83%
German model (ICON)56°51°98%
Canadian model (GEM)57°50°97%
The average57°50°94%

Saturday, November 14

High 55°   Low 48°   Rain 100%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°49°100%
US model (GFS)55°48°100%
German model (ICON)54°48°100%
Canadian model (GEM)54°49°100%
The average55°48°100%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 44°   Rain 100%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°43°99%
US model (GFS)54°42°100%
German model (ICON)54°45°99%
Canadian model (GEM)55°48°100%
The average55°44°100%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.