Minority Report

Monticello, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Drew County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 46°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—37°0%
US model (GFS)72°48°0%
European model (ECMWF)70°50°0%
German model (ICON)69°47°0%
Canadian model (GEM)71°50°0%
The average71°46°0%

Friday, November 13

High 55°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°33°0%
US model (GFS)55°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°40°0%
German model (ICON)54°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°36°0%
The average55°37°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°36°1%
US model (GFS)56°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°36°0%
German model (ICON)54°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°30°0%
The average54°32°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 57°   Low 38°   Rain 31%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 23 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 46% against a group average of 31%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°39°25%
US model (GFS)60°40°23%
European model (ECMWF)55°39°34%
German model (ICON)57°38°46%
Canadian model (GEM)56°37°29%
The average57°38°31%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.