Minority Report

Monticello, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of White County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 46°   Low 37°   Rain 71%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 41 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 49% against a group average of 71%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°51%
US model (GFS)46°36°49%
European model (ECMWF)48°39°78%
German model (ICON)46°38°90%
Canadian model (GEM)46°38°86%
The average46°37°71%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 33°   Rain 35%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 43 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 57% against a group average of 35%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°30°29%
US model (GFS)42°32°14%
European model (ECMWF)42°35°43%
German model (ICON)44°36°33%
Canadian model (GEM)41°34°57%
The average42°33°35%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 31°   Rain 16%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 5% against a group average of 16%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°30°15%
US model (GFS)46°32°21%
European model (ECMWF)46°33°16%
German model (ICON)45°33°25%
Canadian model (GEM)44°26°5%
The average45°31°16%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 30°   Rain 3%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°28°10%
US model (GFS)48°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°32°0%
German model (ICON)49°31°5%
Canadian model (GEM)47°23°0%
The average48°30°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.