Minority Report

Monticello, MO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lewis County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 47°   Low 34°   Rain 3%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 14 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 14% against a group average of 3%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°0%
US model (GFS)47°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°39°0%
German model (ICON)47°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°32°14%
The average47°34°3%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°24°0%
US model (GFS)42°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)42°32°0%
German model (ICON)44°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°25°0%
The average42°28°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°26°0%
US model (GFS)47°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°27°0%
German model (ICON)48°24°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°19°0%
The average46°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°27°0%
US model (GFS)51°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°29°0%
German model (ICON)52°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°17°0%
The average50°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.