Minority Report

Montrose, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Montrose County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°0%
US model (GFS)59°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)58°34°0%
German model (ICON)58°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°28°0%
The average57°31°0%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 34°   Rain 26%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 89 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 92% against a group average of 26%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°36°92%
US model (GFS)61°36°5%
European model (ECMWF)58°32°16%
German model (ICON)58°36°3%
Canadian model (GEM)54°29°14%
The average58°34°26%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 37°   Rain 81%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 92% against a group average of 81%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°36°92%
US model (GFS)46°40°77%
European model (ECMWF)51°37°83%
German model (ICON)51°40°70%
Canadian model (GEM)49°33°81%
The average49°37°81%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 34°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°31°0%
US model (GFS)51°40°5%
European model (ECMWF)52°35°0%
German model (ICON)52°36°5%
Canadian model (GEM)48°30°7%
The average51°34°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.