Minority Report

Montrose, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Susquehanna County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 46°   Low 32°   Rain 100%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°99%
US model (GFS)46°33°100%
European model (ECMWF)46°34°100%
German model (ICON)45°32°100%
Canadian model (GEM)46°32°100%
The average46°32°100%

Friday, November 13

High 34°   Low 29°   Rain 95%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°26°85%
US model (GFS)33°28°89%
European model (ECMWF)34°30°100%
German model (ICON)33°31°100%
Canadian model (GEM)32°29°100%
The average34°29°95%

Saturday, November 14

High 37°   Low 29°   Rain 52%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 53 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 52%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°29°46%
US model (GFS)34°28°27%
European model (ECMWF)37°29°37%
German model (ICON)36°31°80%
Canadian model (GEM)36°29°69%
The average37°29°52%

Sunday, November 15

High 38°   Low 32°   Rain 37%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 23% against a group average of 37%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°31°46%
US model (GFS)36°30°38%
European model (ECMWF)39°33°23%
German model (ICON)38°33°47%
Canadian model (GEM)38°31°30%
The average38°32°37%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.