Minority Report

Mount Ida, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Montgomery County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 68°   Low 43°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°1%
US model (GFS)69°44°1%
European model (ECMWF)67°49°0%
German model (ICON)68°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)68°46°0%
The average68°43°0%

Friday, November 13

High 57°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°29°0%
US model (GFS)56°37°1%
European model (ECMWF)56°39°0%
German model (ICON)56°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°34°0%
The average57°35°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 32°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°32°9%
US model (GFS)56°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°36°2%
German model (ICON)54°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°32°0%
The average54°32°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 39°   Rain 53%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 31 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 53%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°33°38%
US model (GFS)54°37°40%
European model (ECMWF)51°42°69%
German model (ICON)48°41°62%
Canadian model (GEM)51°42°55%
The average51°39°53%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.