Minority Report

Mount Pleasant, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Isabella County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 75%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 92 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 8% against a group average of 75%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°8%
US model (GFS)45°35°69%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°100%
German model (ICON)43°36°98%
Canadian model (GEM)46°35°99%
The average45°34°75%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 31°   Rain 8%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°29°9%
US model (GFS)39°33°10%
European model (ECMWF)42°30°14%
German model (ICON)40°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)39°33°7%
The average41°31°8%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 31°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°32°1%
US model (GFS)42°32°3%
European model (ECMWF)43°30°0%
German model (ICON)46°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°29°0%
The average44°31°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 33°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°28°0%
US model (GFS)47°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°34°2%
German model (ICON)45°36°3%
Canadian model (GEM)43°30°0%
The average45°33°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.