Minority Report

Mount Vernon, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Jefferson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 54°   Low 35°   Rain 12%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 24 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 27% against a group average of 12%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°3%
US model (GFS)53°36°9%
European model (ECMWF)54°39°27%
German model (ICON)54°33°15%
Canadian model (GEM)55°35°5%
The average54°35°12%

Friday, November 13

High 46°   Low 32°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°26°5%
US model (GFS)44°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°37°0%
German model (ICON)48°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°32°0%
The average46°32°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°26°0%
US model (GFS)48°25°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°32°0%
German model (ICON)50°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°26°0%
The average49°27°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°27°0%
US model (GFS)53°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°31°0%
German model (ICON)54°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°21°0%
The average52°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.