Minority Report

Mount Vernon, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Knox County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 49°   Low 40°   Rain 95%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 13 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°87%
US model (GFS)50°41°89%
European model (ECMWF)49°41°100%
German model (ICON)48°42°100%
Canadian model (GEM)50°42°100%
The average49°40°95%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 34°   Rain 51%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 52 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 82% against a group average of 51%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°30°30%
US model (GFS)42°35°38%
European model (ECMWF)42°35°82%
German model (ICON)43°35°40%
Canadian model (GEM)43°34°67%
The average42°34°51%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 29°   Rain 20%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 73 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 73% against a group average of 20%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°31°10%
US model (GFS)42°32°5%
European model (ECMWF)44°29°14%
German model (ICON)42°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°27°73%
The average42°29°20%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 33°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°30°1%
US model (GFS)46°36°1%
European model (ECMWF)42°36°0%
German model (ICON)47°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°28°1%
The average44°33°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.