Minority Report

Mountain City, TN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Johnson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 51°   Low 37°   Rain 86%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 50 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 50% against a group average of 86%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°50%
US model (GFS)50°39°80%
European model (ECMWF)50°39°100%
German model (ICON)53°40°100%
Canadian model (GEM)50°36°100%
The average51°37°86%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 33°   Rain 77%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 51 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 49% against a group average of 77%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°27°66%
US model (GFS)40°34°49%
European model (ECMWF)39°34°100%
German model (ICON)40°34°68%
Canadian model (GEM)40°34°100%
The average40°33°77%

Saturday, November 14

High 36°   Low 26°   Rain 52%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 74 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 92% against a group average of 52%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°27°18%
US model (GFS)34°21°33%
European model (ECMWF)35°29°92%
German model (ICON)36°31°25%
Canadian model (GEM)36°24°90%
The average36°26°52%

Sunday, November 15

High 42°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°26°0%
US model (GFS)39°21°0%
European model (ECMWF)40°27°0%
German model (ICON)45°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°22°0%
The average42°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.