Minority Report

Mountain Home, ID — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Elmore County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 66°   Low 42°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—47°0%
US model (GFS)68°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)68°44°0%
German model (ICON)66°41°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°41°0%
The average66°42°0%

Friday, November 13

High 66°   Low 48°   Rain 83%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 35 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 59% against a group average of 83%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service69°44°87%
US model (GFS)66°53°59%
European model (ECMWF)65°50°94%
German model (ICON)68°47°85%
Canadian model (GEM)62°46°90%
The average66°48°83%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 41°   Rain 76%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 93 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 7% against a group average of 76%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°38°7%
US model (GFS)53°43°80%
European model (ECMWF)53°44°100%
German model (ICON)54°43°95%
Canadian model (GEM)55°36°98%
The average54°41°76%

Sunday, November 15

High 58°   Low 40°   Rain 12%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 32% against a group average of 12%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°38°32%
US model (GFS)58°43°1%
European model (ECMWF)60°43°4%
German model (ICON)58°41°23%
Canadian model (GEM)56°34°0%
The average58°40°12%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.