Minority Report

Murphy, ID — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Owyhee County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 63°   Low 45°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—42°0%
US model (GFS)67°46°0%
European model (ECMWF)63°45°0%
German model (ICON)62°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)61°43°0%
The average63°45°0%

Friday, November 13

High 64°   Low 45°   Rain 67%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 52 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 40% against a group average of 67%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°42°67%
US model (GFS)66°47°40%
European model (ECMWF)64°46°92%
German model (ICON)65°50°68%
Canadian model (GEM)60°41°67%
The average64°45°67%

Saturday, November 14

High 56°   Low 41°   Rain 52%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 94 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 2% against a group average of 52%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°36°2%
US model (GFS)54°43°53%
European model (ECMWF)56°43°96%
German model (ICON)58°45°43%
Canadian model (GEM)59°38°65%
The average56°41°52%

Sunday, November 15

High 57°   Low 41°   Rain 28%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 39 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 48% against a group average of 28%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°39°48%
US model (GFS)56°46°9%
European model (ECMWF)58°40°24%
German model (ICON)57°44°48%
Canadian model (GEM)56°34°10%
The average57°41°28%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.