Minority Report

Murphysboro, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Jackson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 56°   Low 37°   Rain 5%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 15 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 16% against a group average of 5%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°1%
US model (GFS)56°37°2%
European model (ECMWF)56°42°16%
German model (ICON)56°36°3%
Canadian model (GEM)57°37°5%
The average56°37°5%

Friday, November 13

High 46°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°27°0%
US model (GFS)45°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°36°0%
German model (ICON)48°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°32°0%
The average46°32°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°27°0%
US model (GFS)50°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°32°0%
German model (ICON)51°24°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°25°0%
The average50°27°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°29°1%
US model (GFS)55°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°33°0%
German model (ICON)56°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°20°0%
The average53°28°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.