Minority Report

Nacogdoches, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Nacogdoches County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 52°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—47°0%
US model (GFS)79°52°0%
European model (ECMWF)78°54°0%
German model (ICON)76°54°0%
Canadian model (GEM)78°54°0%
The average78°52°0%

Friday, November 13

High 70°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service70°44°1%
US model (GFS)69°52°0%
European model (ECMWF)70°52°0%
German model (ICON)66°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°51°0%
The average70°49°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 64°   Low 45°   Rain 15%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 15%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°44°22%
US model (GFS)66°44°5%
European model (ECMWF)64°47°26%
German model (ICON)60°40°20%
Canadian model (GEM)64°48°0%
The average64°45°15%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 46°   Rain 80%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 63% against a group average of 80%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°43°76%
US model (GFS)61°47°63%
European model (ECMWF)53°46°96%
German model (ICON)51°47°81%
Canadian model (GEM)54°45°84%
The average56°46°80%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.