Minority Report

Napa, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Napa County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 48°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 8%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service70°49°29%
US model (GFS)70°47°3%
European model (ECMWF)72°49°0%
German model (ICON)71°47°3%
Canadian model (GEM)72°48°5%
The average71°48°8%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 49°   Rain 100%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°42°99%
US model (GFS)60°49°100%
European model (ECMWF)59°50°100%
German model (ICON)60°52°100%
Canadian model (GEM)61°50°100%
The average60°49°100%

Saturday, November 14

High 63°   Low 47°   Rain 16%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 2% against a group average of 16%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°44°21%
US model (GFS)63°48°13%
European model (ECMWF)62°45°2%
German model (ICON)63°50°13%
Canadian model (GEM)62°50°29%
The average63°47°16%

Sunday, November 15

High 61°   Low 49°   Rain 92%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 17 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°42°83%
US model (GFS)64°53°86%
European model (ECMWF)60°51°95%
German model (ICON)57°49°100%
Canadian model (GEM)62°51°96%
The average61°49°92%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.