Minority Report

Napoleonville, LA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Assumption Parish.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 76°   Low 53°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—47°0%
US model (GFS)78°57°0%
European model (ECMWF)74°56°0%
German model (ICON)76°54°0%
Canadian model (GEM)76°52°0%
The average76°53°0%

Friday, November 13

High 70°   Low 46°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service70°41°0%
US model (GFS)72°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)67°49°0%
German model (ICON)69°45°0%
Canadian model (GEM)72°47°0%
The average70°46°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 62°   Low 42°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°42°0%
US model (GFS)63°43°0%
European model (ECMWF)60°44°0%
German model (ICON)63°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)63°42°0%
The average62°42°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 68°   Low 46°   Rain 35%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 51% against a group average of 35%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service67°50°50%
US model (GFS)71°47°27%
European model (ECMWF)64°48°51%
German model (ICON)66°45°26%
Canadian model (GEM)71°40°19%
The average68°46°35%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.