Minority Report

Nashville, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Howard County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 72°   Low 46°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°2%
US model (GFS)73°46°1%
European model (ECMWF)70°50°0%
German model (ICON)71°47°0%
Canadian model (GEM)72°48°0%
The average72°46°1%

Friday, November 13

High 59°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°37°0%
US model (GFS)59°43°1%
European model (ECMWF)57°42°0%
German model (ICON)58°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)60°40°0%
The average59°40°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 56°   Low 37°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°37°10%
US model (GFS)58°36°2%
European model (ECMWF)54°38°2%
German model (ICON)56°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°36°0%
The average56°37°3%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 41°   Rain 66%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 49% against a group average of 66%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°39°62%
US model (GFS)54°40°49%
European model (ECMWF)51°43°73%
German model (ICON)46°41°72%
Canadian model (GEM)52°44°73%
The average51°41°66%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.