Minority Report

Nevada City, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Nevada County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 72°   Low 49°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 48 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 48% against a group average of 17%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—47°48%
US model (GFS)73°53°3%
European model (ECMWF)72°50°0%
German model (ICON)70°45°13%
Canadian model (GEM)71°48°20%
The average72°49°17%

Friday, November 13

High 53°   Low 44°   Rain 100%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°41°100%
US model (GFS)53°44°100%
European model (ECMWF)53°44°100%
German model (ICON)54°45°100%
Canadian model (GEM)53°45°100%
The average53°44°100%

Saturday, November 14

High 55°   Low 41°   Rain 48%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 78 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 95% against a group average of 48%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°41°17%
US model (GFS)54°42°41%
European model (ECMWF)56°39°44%
German model (ICON)54°40°43%
Canadian model (GEM)55°42°95%
The average55°41°48%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 42°   Rain 94%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°42°93%
US model (GFS)58°43°91%
European model (ECMWF)57°42°93%
German model (ICON)52°40°100%
Canadian model (GEM)56°42°95%
The average55°42°94%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.