Minority Report

New Bern, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Craven County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 74°   Low 50°   Rain 12%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 24 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 12%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—44°15%
US model (GFS)74°49°24%
European model (ECMWF)74°53°16%
German model (ICON)74°51°3%
Canadian model (GEM)73°52°0%
The average74°50°12%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 43°   Rain 10%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 17 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°37°19%
US model (GFS)58°44°2%
European model (ECMWF)59°47°6%
German model (ICON)61°43°18%
Canadian model (GEM)62°46°3%
The average60°43°10%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 37°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 18% against a group average of 7%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°34°0%
US model (GFS)54°36°4%
European model (ECMWF)53°40°5%
German model (ICON)54°34°18%
Canadian model (GEM)54°40°10%
The average54°37°7%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°37°0%
US model (GFS)54°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°37°0%
German model (ICON)58°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°35°0%
The average56°34°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.