New Castle, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lawrence County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 49° Low 38° Rain 79%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 78 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 32° | 22% |
| US model (GFS) | 50° | 38° | 80% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 50° | 39° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 47° | 39° | 100% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 49° | 42° | 91% |
| The average | 49° | 38° | 79% |
High 43° Low 33° Rain 16%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 46° | 26° | 21% |
| US model (GFS) | 41° | 32° | 13% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 42° | 36° | 4% |
| German model (ICON) | 43° | 33° | 23% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 42° | 37° | 17% |
| The average | 43° | 33° | 16% |
High 43° Low 33° Rain 77%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 46° | 30° | 80% |
| US model (GFS) | 41° | 34° | 75% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 41° | 34° | 94% |
| German model (ICON) | 42° | 34° | 65% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 45° | 36° | 71% |
| The average | 43° | 33° | 77% |
High 45° Low 37° Rain 46%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 49° | 31° | 42% |
| US model (GFS) | 45° | 39° | 37% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 43° | 40° | 39% |
| German model (ICON) | 45° | 39° | 52% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 44° | 36° | 59% |
| The average | 45° | 37° | 46% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.