Minority Report

New Kent, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of New Kent County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 69°   Low 46°   Rain 19%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 28 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 19%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°10%
US model (GFS)68°49°14%
European model (ECMWF)69°48°25%
German model (ICON)71°46°38%
Canadian model (GEM)70°48°10%
The average69°46°19%

Friday, November 13

High 53°   Low 36°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°32°5%
US model (GFS)51°36°1%
European model (ECMWF)53°41°2%
German model (ICON)53°36°8%
Canadian model (GEM)54°38°2%
The average53°36°4%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 33°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°31°0%
US model (GFS)52°32°1%
European model (ECMWF)49°38°0%
German model (ICON)51°30°3%
Canadian model (GEM)51°35°5%
The average51°33°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°31°0%
US model (GFS)54°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°39°0%
German model (ICON)56°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°34°0%
The average54°34°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.