Minority Report

Newfane, VT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Windham County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 43°   Low 36°   Rain 99%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°96%
US model (GFS)40°38°100%
European model (ECMWF)44°37°100%
German model (ICON)42°36°100%
Canadian model (GEM)45°39°100%
The average43°36°99%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 88%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 46 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 88%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°28°54%
US model (GFS)41°33°84%
European model (ECMWF)41°33°100%
German model (ICON)39°34°100%
Canadian model (GEM)42°30°100%
The average41°32°88%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 31°   Rain 7%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°29°15%
US model (GFS)41°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)41°31°15%
German model (ICON)42°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°30°5%
The average41°31°7%

Sunday, November 15

High 42°   Low 33°   Rain 4%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 15% against a group average of 4%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°29°15%
US model (GFS)41°29°2%
European model (ECMWF)43°35°2%
German model (ICON)42°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°35°0%
The average42°33°4%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.