Minority Report

Newland, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Avery County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 49°   Low 35°   Rain 83%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 46 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 83%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°54%
US model (GFS)50°34°64%
European model (ECMWF)48°36°100%
German model (ICON)52°37°98%
Canadian model (GEM)47°34°100%
The average49°35°83%

Friday, November 13

High 36°   Low 30°   Rain 67%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 54 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 67%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°28°48%
US model (GFS)34°29°44%
European model (ECMWF)36°31°98%
German model (ICON)37°31°75%
Canadian model (GEM)35°30°72%
The average36°30°67%

Saturday, November 14

High 32°   Low 25°   Rain 31%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 35 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 51% against a group average of 31%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service34°26°16%
US model (GFS)30°22°34%
European model (ECMWF)32°24°51%
German model (ICON)32°28°33%
Canadian model (GEM)32°26°19%
The average32°25°31%

Sunday, November 15

High 39°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°27°0%
US model (GFS)35°20°0%
European model (ECMWF)39°25°0%
German model (ICON)41°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)37°25°0%
The average39°25°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.