Minority Report

Newport, VT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Orleans County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 42°   Low 30°   Rain 9%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 10 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—28°10%
US model (GFS)41°31°4%
European model (ECMWF)43°32°14%
German model (ICON)41°31°5%
Canadian model (GEM)42°29°14%
The average42°30°9%

Friday, November 13

High 38°   Low 29°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 5%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°28°22%
US model (GFS)38°30°2%
European model (ECMWF)38°30°1%
German model (ICON)38°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)39°27°0%
The average38°29°5%

Saturday, November 14

High 38°   Low 33°   Rain 71%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 35 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 52% against a group average of 71%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°30°72%
US model (GFS)38°33°56%
European model (ECMWF)39°35°86%
German model (ICON)39°34°52%
Canadian model (GEM)38°34°87%
The average38°33°71%

Sunday, November 15

High 38°   Low 32°   Rain 43%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 44 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 43%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°28°52%
US model (GFS)37°32°41%
European model (ECMWF)39°34°26%
German model (ICON)38°34°25%
Canadian model (GEM)39°34°69%
The average38°32°43%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.