Minority Report

Newton, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Jasper County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 51°   Low 35°   Rain 31%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 73 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 82% against a group average of 31%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°9%
US model (GFS)50°36°16%
European model (ECMWF)51°37°82%
German model (ICON)52°35°20%
Canadian model (GEM)51°36°29%
The average51°35°31%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 32°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°28°9%
US model (GFS)41°31°3%
European model (ECMWF)43°35°2%
German model (ICON)44°32°3%
Canadian model (GEM)40°32°0%
The average43°32°3%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°26°0%
US model (GFS)49°30°1%
European model (ECMWF)50°31°0%
German model (ICON)49°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°25°0%
The average49°28°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°28°0%
US model (GFS)52°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°30°0%
German model (ICON)52°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°20°0%
The average51°28°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.