Minority Report

Newton, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Newton County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 53°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—47°0%
US model (GFS)79°53°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°56°0%
German model (ICON)77°55°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°56°0%
The average78°53°0%

Friday, November 13

High 71°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service72°42°0%
US model (GFS)72°51°0%
European model (ECMWF)71°51°0%
German model (ICON)68°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)74°53°0%
The average71°49°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 64°   Low 44°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°44°2%
US model (GFS)66°43°1%
European model (ECMWF)64°45°9%
German model (ICON)62°38°3%
Canadian model (GEM)65°48°0%
The average64°44°3%

Sunday, November 15

High 61°   Low 46°   Rain 79%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 15°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 93% against a group average of 79%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°45°78%
US model (GFS)67°46°67%
European model (ECMWF)53°46°93%
German model (ICON)53°47°75%
Canadian model (GEM)68°48°81%
The average61°46°79%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.